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Bursting Bubbles
My predictions for the College Football Playoff quarterfinals.
Welcome to Glass Slipper! I may have no choice but to root for Carson Wentz; please enjoy the show.
- Jacob Rhee
I was only planning to make predictions for the college football regular season, but I feel like giving out more prizes. Same rules apply; every time I pick a winner incorrectly, it costs me $15 in rewards. I will be predicting the outcomes of the Power Four conference championship games, as well as all 11 playoff contests. That’s 15 extra chances to inflate the Prize Pot. Let’s go.
Fiesta Bowl: No. 6 seed Penn State vs. No. 3 seed Boise State
The pick: Penn State wins, 33-21.
This is not a perfect matchup for the Nittany Lions. The numbers tell you that Tom Allen’s defense is elite against the run, but I’d look a little bit closer; the two squads that could legitimately hang with Penn State in the trenches ultimately got whatever they wanted. Ohio State closed out its victory in Happy Valley with an 11-play possession that featured zero passes. Oregon rumbled for 186 and two scores on the ground. Those are problematic numbers when the best collegiate back of the century - and his severely underappreciated offensive line - is standing on the opposing sideline.
Drew Allar will need to be sharp this evening, and I believe he’s up to the task. The Nittany Lions put it away with a late touchdown drive, and book a trip to Miami Gardens.
Peach Bowl: No. 5 seed Texas vs. No. 4 seed Arizona State
The pick: Texas wins, 30-17.
My biggest concern for ASU? Kenny Dillingham’s pride. The fiery 34-year-old has to be frank enough with himself to realize that he can’t just line up and beat the Longhorns with a traditional gameplan. You have to venture outside of the habits and patterns that you’ve put on tape. Call a dozen designed runs for Sam Leavitt. Suddenly become a blitz-heavy team for the afternoon. Dust off the Cam Skattebo jump pass that’s sitting in the garage. Make this thing weird.
Unfortunately, I think the Sun Devils have convinced themselves that they’re the big dogs in this matchup. We’re the higher seed! They have to adjust to us! We don’t need gimmicks! Careful, guys. Texas isn’t invincible, but the gap in talent is absolutely massive. If you attempt to play this contest straight-up, you’re getting sent home.
I have the Longhorns jumping out to a double-digit lead early, and never feeling truly threatened. Leavitt commits multiple turnovers, and Arizona State’s dream season ends.
Rose Bowl: No. 8 seed Ohio State vs. No. 1 seed Oregon
The pick: Oregon wins, 31-24.
No, this is not a dastardly attempt at a reverse-jinx. The better team emerged victorious in October, and history should repeat itself 24 hours from now.
Everyone remembers how that clash in Autzen ended. Think about all of the help that Ryan Day’s group needed in order to even have a chance, though. The Ducks intercepted a throw on the first possession of the contest, and the officials mistakenly ruled it a Will Kacmarek catch. A mouthful of spit got Traeshon Holden tossed in the second quarter. Jordan Burch - Oregon’s best individual defender, in my opinion - was inactive. Quite frankly, the Buckeyes were fortunate to keep it tight.
The Ducks are healthy and rested, and they undoubtedly feel disrespected by the point spread. I’d love to be wrong, but I think these dudes find a way again.
Sugar Bowl: No. 7 seed Notre Dame vs. No. 2 seed Georgia
The pick: Notre Dame wins, 27-20.
I don’t trust Gunner Stockton. Sorry. The college football world was so convinced by his showing in the SEC Championship Game that the Dawgs are actually still favored to win tomorrow night. I’m not entirely sure what everyone is watching. Yes, Georgia’s offense came alive when Stockton was inserted against Texas; I’d make the argument that it was in spite of him, and not because of him. I mean, 4.4 yards per pass attempt? An inexplicably awful interception in crunch time that should’ve been returned for a touchdown? I appreciated his toughness, but was thoroughly unimpressed by his play.
Meanwhile, this Dawgs defense has gotten burned by the quarterback run all year. Riley Leonard is teed up for a signature performance that Irish fans will remember for a long time. Give me Notre Dame in an old-fashioned slugfest.
College Football Playoff Round 1 Results: 3-1
Overall Season Picks Record: 64-28
Current CFB Prize Pot: $420
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