Welcome to Glass Slipper! In three weeks, there will be a real college football game on your screen; please enjoy the show.

- Jacob Rhee

Believe it or not, today’s title is not just a random Taylor Swift reference. In my opinion, there are exactly 22 teams that are realistically capable of making the College Football Playoff this season. It’s time to separate them into tiers.

Tier 5: Leave the Door Open

22. Arizona

21. Oklahoma State

20. Iowa

19. Kansas State

18. USC

17. Oklahoma

16. Miami (FL)

These schools exist on the fringes of CFP contention, for a variety of reasons. The three Big 12 entries have the privilege of feasting on a weak conference. Iowa gets invited to the party because its defense will be nasty, per usual. Meanwhile, USC and Oklahoma sit not too far ahead. Those are two of the toughest schedules in college football; if someone can brave the storm and escape with 10 wins, they’ll go to the playoff.

Miami, on the other hand, has an extremely friendly slate. I wrote about liking the ‘Canes a few days ago, and they might sneak into the picture without really having to prove a whole lot.

Tier 4: Swiper, No Swiping!

15. LSU

14. Michigan

13. Ole Miss

12. Missouri

No one in this group of four has the requisite horses to win a national championship, but any of them could steal a conference title if things break the right way. LSU may feel high for a three-loss team trying to replace the Heisman Trophy winner, but I like what I’ve seen from Garrett Nussmeier. Michigan might seem low, but I think there’s too much inexperience there.

I’m way lower on Ole Miss than most. I understand the hype; the Rebels went 11-2 and finished the year with momentum. But these guys have consistently fallen short against the conference’s big boys, and I think this season will be no different. The program is essentially the Penn State of the SEC. Missouri is in that same realm.

Tier 3: If Our QB Is A Star…

11. Clemson

10. Tennessee

9. Penn State

8. Florida State

7. Notre Dame

Here we go. We’ve made it to the 11 teams that can win it all.

The name of the tier speaks for itself. There is no ceiling for these squads if their quarterbacks show up. We’ve been waiting years for Cade Klubnik and DJ Uiagalelei to reach their respective five-star potentials, so I’ll believe it when I see it. For Tennessee, the Nico Iamaleava breakout seems more like an inevitability than a question mark. He’s a twitchy athlete with a live arm, who happens to be 6-foot-6. The kid has one career start, and the highlights are already breathtaking.

Everything is in place at both Penn State and Notre Dame for a legitimate run at a national title. At each school, missing this year’s playoff should be considered a massive disappointment. It all rests on Drew Allar’s willingness to graduate from five-yard hitches, and if Riley Leonard can replicate that brilliant 2022 Duke campaign.

Tier 2: Is Kalen DeBoer Ready?

6. Alabama

It’s hard for me to imagine that a team could miss the national championship game, wave goodbye to the best college football coach ever, endure a major transfer portal exodus, and then come back the next year and win the whole thing. But the Crimson Tide deserve some respect here.

Some might say that this is the best quarterback in America, being protected by the top offensive line. It’s a brutal schedule, but I’m going to wait until Alabama looks pedestrian on big stages before I start to doubt. Besides, winning follows Kalen DeBoer. After success at Fresno State, the guy inherited a 4-8 Washington squad and went 25-3 over the next two years. I don’t know if Year 1 in Tuscaloosa will be perfect, but the Crimson Tide are in good hands long-term.

Tier 1: The Heavyweights

5. Texas

4. Oregon

3. Utah

2. Ohio State

1. Georgia

This is how I rationalize my preseason top five. Texas reloaded in the portal after last year’s program-changing playoff berth. Oregon has the best offense in the nation. Ohio State has the best defense. Georgia has the best team. And Utah? Oh, you guys already know how much I love my Utes. They might rename it to Glass Slipper Stadium out there in Salt Lake City by the end of this season.

I’d be shocked if any of those five teams miss the playoff, and I’d be even more stunned if the eventual national champion doesn’t come from this tier.

College football is right around the corner. I hope you’re ready.

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“Breakout” by Swing Out Sister. Pure nostalgia.