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If you didn’t see, Arch Manning came out of the bullpen and tallied five total touchdowns in about two quarters of work on Saturday. It was a pretty spectacular show, and the redshirt freshman vaulted himself up the Heisman ladder in the process. As of this writing, there are only six(!!) players in America with better odds to win the award. Interestingly enough, the guy in front of Arch on Texas’s depth chart is not one of them.

I obviously don’t know anything about Quinn Ewers’ exact return timetable. But we learned that he’s out this weekend, and Steve Sarkisian already revealed that Quinn will still be iffy when conference play begins in nine days.

Ewers is undoubtedly pushing to return as soon as possible, in an effort to ward Manning away from his job. But look at those two opponents that the Longhorns have next. UL Monroe? Mississippi State, who just got tagged by Toledo at home? Everyone in Austin knows that Texas would breeze to a pair of victories with Arch in the huddle. Why rush Quinn back when it’s not necessary?

Let’s assume that Ewers is sidelined for both contests (which feels likely). We’ll also pencil in Manning for a big performance in each game (which feels even likelier). The Longhorns would head to their first bye week at 5-0, with the Red River Showdown on deck. At that point, Arch might be the Heisman favorite. Do you really think Sarkisian is going to yank him out of the lineup in favor of a guy that wouldn’t have seen game action in almost a month? I like Ewers a lot, but I’d lean towards no.

This would not be the first time that an elite team benched its quarterback for a reserve with a higher ceiling. Notre Dame replaced Brandon Wimbush with Ian Book in September of 2018, and ultimately took a 12-0 record to the College Football Playoff. Trevor Lawrence stole Clemson’s starting gig from Kelly Bryant a few days after that change in South Bend, and the Tigers went 15-0 and won the national title. It’s happened, and it’s worked.

So is Manning good enough to lead Texas to the mountaintop this season? I think reasonable football fans can disagree on that one. The positive traits are in plain sight; flick on the Isidore Newman tape for 30 seconds and you’ll see the wild arm talent, the solid athleticism, and the ridiculously quick release. Arch also started all four years in high school, which is valuable. He’s seen different schemes and faced pressurized moments.

But while you have his film on the screen, pay attention to the dudes that he’s playing. What do you notice about them? My first observation? They’re really bad. In some moments, it looks like 11 versions of me running around out there. Manning is a member of the most famous football family ever, and grew up facing weak competition in Louisiana. What happens the first time he encounters a little adversity? Say his first throw against Oklahoma gets picked off. Does Arch unravel because he sees Ewers in the rearview mirror? I think it’s totally fair to wonder about that.

People love to claim that possessing multiple capable quarterbacks is a great problem to have. I don’t think that’s necessarily the case here; in fact, this battle has a chance to torpedo the Longhorns’ entire campaign. If Quinn gets the nod, the poor guy won’t even be able to throw an incompletion without hearing chants for his backup. If Manning takes the reins and looks shaky, Sarkisian will be blamed for trying to fix an offense that wasn’t broken. It’s an impossible decision.

This is the No. 1 team in the country, and the fan base is incredibly antsy for a national championship. It’s anyone’s guess who winds up being the long-term guy at QB. The only thing for certain is that they better be perfect.

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