Horsepower

My 2025-26 College Football Playoff predictions.

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The 215-day wait is finally over. College football begins today, which means that it’s time to run through my official playoff predictions. Here we go.

The First-Round Byes

  1. Penn State {Big Ten Champion} (13-0)

  2. Texas {SEC Champion} (12-1)

  3. Clemson {ACC Champion} (12-1)

  4. Oregon (11-1)

I think Penn State is going to find itself in exactly one true fistfight between now and Selection Sunday. November 1st, in Columbus. Oregon is on the schedule, but I have the Nittany Lions running away that night. Dante Moore’s first important start, and he’s tasked with conquering the White Out? Best of luck, young man. Meanwhile, Texas heads into the playoff as the clear favorite in Vegas. Arch Manning’s draft plans remain unclear at this point; that doesn’t stop the Saints and Browns from pounding their respective lose-at-all-costs buttons.

Dabo Swinney secures his ninth ACC championship in the past eleven seasons - which is absolutely absurd, by the way - and Clemson breezes into a bye. The aforementioned Ducks follow directly behind, thanks in large part to that red velvet cakewalk of a schedule. I’m envisioning a multitude of tight contests in the second half of the slate, with the entire college football world giving these guys a suspicious side-eye as a result.

The Hosts

  1. Notre Dame (11-1)

  2. LSU (10-2)

  3. Illinois (11-2)

  4. Ohio State (10-2)

The Irish were in a one-possession game with 27 seconds remaining, on the sport’s biggest stage. Not a single active player that wore a gold helmet that night was a top-95 pick in April’s draft. Consider it an obvious indicator that the success last fall is very much repeatable; if CJ Carr is anything above a 6/10, Notre Dame will be a serious contender. Slotting LSU this high is awfully risky business. Sure, I could see that offense reaching levels of near-unstoppability. I can also imagine a 7-5 catastrophe, where the Tigers wind up in the Music City Bowl. Brian Kelly better hope things click.

You can either hop on the Illinois bandwagon now, or endure my I-tried-to-warn-you rant in a couple of months. Choose carefully. That’s a really good group, and a starving fan base. It’s essentially 2024 Indiana, but with far more continuity. My precious Buckeyes settle in at No. 8, a year after winning it all from that spot. Ryan Day will still be too busy celebrating his second victory over Michigan to tune into ESPN for the bracket unveiling.

The Road Warriors

  1. Texas Tech {Big 12 Champion} (11-2)

  2. Georgia (10-3)

  3. Navy {AAC Champion} (11-1)

  4. Florida (9-3)

Texas Tech is down at No. 23 in the AP poll, and that’s far too low. I think this historic transfer class pushes the Red Raiders back into the national spotlight for the first time since the Graham Harrell and Michael Crabtree glory days. Navy is the Group of Five representative, with Blake Horvath earning legitimate Heisman buzz; a competitive loss to Notre Dame is the only blemish on the record.

It’ll undoubtedly feel a bit icky to allow multiple three-loss non-champs into the field, but Georgia and Florida both make the cut here. This is a moment where proponents of another playoff mega-expansion start to do some self-reflecting. 24 teams? I mean, come on. Imagine having to build an argument that an 8-4 squad deserves a shot at the title. Let’s stick with the current format for a while.

First Four Out

  1. South Carolina (9-3)

  2. UNLV {Mountain West Champion} (12-1)

  3. Miami (FL) (10-3)

  4. ASU (10-3)

Poor LaNorris Sellers falls on the wrong side of the bubble once again. So do the Hurricanes, who I sincerely hope do not begin to turn on Mario Cristobal. Back-to-back campaigns with double-digit wins is encouraging. You haven’t accomplished that in over two decades; be grateful for the progress.

Navy and UNLV is going to be a debate all year. I’m sure we’ll get some whiny Dan Mullen press conferences when his Rebels ultimately come up just short of a bid. Arizona State enjoys another nice season, and continues to establish itself as one of the premier programs on the West Coast.

Round 1

#12 Florida OVER #5 Notre Dame

#6 LSU OVER #11 Navy

#10 Georgia OVER #7 Illinois

#8 Ohio State OVER #9 Texas Tech

Quarterfinals

#1 Penn State OVER #8 Ohio State

#2 Texas OVER #10 Georgia

#3 Clemson OVER #6 LSU

#12 Florida OVER #4 Oregon

Semifinals

#1 Penn State OVER #12 Florida

#2 Texas OVER #3 Clemson

National Championship Game

#2 Texas OVER #1 Penn State

Look, this is obviously not my preferred outcome. I want to see Julian Sayin doing confetti angels in January. It is my duty to provide an objective prediction, though. The Longhorns finished 5-7 in Year 1 under Steve Sarkisian. Eight victories in 2022. A conference title in 2023. Two playoff wins in 2024. All of the stars are aligning for these dudes to take the last step.

Unfortunately, that means more heartbreak for the Nittany Lions. James Franklin’s demon-exorcising revenge tour is spoiled in its final act, and Texas prances off with the trophy.

We made it to the new season, folks. Let’s rejoice.

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