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Nerves of Steel
My predictions for the College Football Playoff quarterfinals.
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- Jacob Rhee
I was only planning to make predictions for the college football regular season, but I feel like giving out more rewards. Same rules apply; every time I pick a winner incorrectly, it costs me $15 in rewards. I will be predicting the outcomes of the Power Four conference championship games, as well as all 11 playoff contests. That’s 15 extra chances to inflate the Prize Pot. Let’s go.
Cotton Bowl: No. 10 seed Miami (FL) vs. No. 2 seed Ohio State
The pick: Ohio State wins, 28-13.
This is the Buckeyes’ 12th playoff game since the introduction of the format in 2014. It’s the only one I’ve ever felt really confident about.
Any hypothetical path to victory for Miami includes a second straight clunker from Julian Sayin. Bryant Haines conjured a brilliant plan in the Big Ten championship game, and may very well have cost No. 10 the Heisman Trophy. For the first time in his collegiate career, Julian was visibly rattled; he then had to spend 25 days sitting on it. Everything I know about the kid’s inner makeup signals that an impressive response is coming.
Miami folks will uncork a generation’s worth of gloating and trash talk if their ‘Canes are dancing at the end of the night. January 3, 2003 is still on the mind. Fortunately for Buckeye Nation, those tweets are staying in the drafts. Max Klare catches a pair of touchdowns, and Ohio State heads back to the semifinals.
Orange Bowl: No. 5 seed Oregon vs. No. 4 seed Texas Tech
The pick: Texas Tech wins, 19-17.
I don’t see any world where this isn’t a nail-biter. Both teams are far too good to be vanquished handily. It’s the kind of matchup that us college football diehards spend all year hoping for.
The general public needs to give Behren Morton some respect. We’ll never see him escape left, flip his hips, and drop a 60-yard go-ball in the bucket. But Morton’s knack for delivering timely completions is plenty enough to make the Red Raiders’ offense lethal. 50 total touchdowns and just 12 interceptions since the calendar flipped to 2024? I’m pretty satisfied with that.
It is absolutely paramount that the Ducks start fast. Endure a flat first quarter, and you’re returning to Eugene on a silent flight. Will Stein has to get his guys in a rhythm on the opening possession, and keep them right there. Dial up quick throws for Dante Moore, insert creativity in the run game, and fluctuate the tempo. Most importantly, avoid Jacob Rodriguez. Follow that blueprint, and you’ll force Texas Tech to prove its championship mettle late.
I wrestled with this pick for days on end. Deep down, I always had a feeling that my affinity for Joey McGuire’s crew was going to prevail. Give me the Red Raiders in an instant classic.
Rose Bowl: No. 9 seed Alabama vs. No. 1 seed Indiana
The pick: Indiana wins, 27-20.
The Hoosiers are better. In all three phases, and at almost every position group. They just are. I don’t even think Bama fans would push back on that assertion too hard. Still, the Tide are more than capable of stealing this thing.
A 51-year-old offensive guru shouldn’t need me to educate him, but here we are. Ty Simpson tallied 1,206 rushing yards as a senior in high school. He rumbled for 181 and two scores in the state title game. When describing his own skill set prior to this season, Ty immediately referred to himself as a dual-threat quarterback. In other words, he’s a fantastic athlete. At no point has Kalen DeBoer shown an interest in using Simpson’s legs as a threat, and I simply do not understand. A part of me wants to believe that he’s been intentionally saving that wrinkle for a situation like this, to ambush an unsuspecting IU defense. That feels like nothing more than wishful thinking, though; if DeBoer had the idea in his back pocket this whole time, we would’ve seen him pull it out when all hands were on deck in Atlanta.
Alabama ultimately cooled a hot Oklahoma offense, in part because Kane Wommack was willing to get funky. He bucked his zone-heavy tendencies for more man coverage, and began disguising pressures. Tide folks better hope there are more tricks up his sleeve. We’ve never once seen Fernando Mendoza truly flummoxed while wearing a Hoosiers uniform.
It’ll be interesting the whole way, but I like Indiana to take care of business. Our buddy Kalen will have plenty of questions to answer in 24 hours.
Sugar Bowl: No. 6 Ole Miss vs. No. 3 Georgia
The pick: Georgia wins, 34-23.
This game is on ESPN. Lane Kiffin will likely be in attendance. I sure can’t wait for the broadcast to go split-screen for a full quarter.
Want to conquer the mighty Bulldogs? In my opinion, there are two necessary ingredients. Elite talent in the wide receiver room, and speed on defense. Ohio State, Oregon, Alabama, and Indiana check both boxes. Ole Miss does not.
The Rebels marched into Athens and scored a touchdown on each of their first five(!!) possessions back in October. This is a totally different Georgia defense, however. CJ Allen has help these days, and the unit feels title-worthy.
Kirby Smart’s Dawgs are winners of nine in a row, and have ceded 10 points or fewer in four straight. That second streak will definitely end tomorrow evening. The first one will not. Georgia gets it done in New Orleans.
College Football Playoff Round 1 Results: 3-1
Overall Season Picks Record: 59-33
Current CFB Prize Pot: $495
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