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Let’s separate the Western Conference into tiers, and project each team’s record.

Tier 6: Give Us Cooper

15. Portland (23-59)

It speaks to the quality of the West that there’s only one team intentionally trying to lose. I’m still in on Scoot Henderson, despite a disgustingly bad rookie campaign. I watched that kid play one G League game in 2022, and instantly fell in love with his effort and feel. He’ll figure it out.

Tier 5: One More Season

14. Utah (28-54)

13. San Antonio (33-49)

12. Houston (37-45)

The Jazz have been caught between tanking and pushing for a play-in spot for a couple of years now. It’d be better for the franchise’s long-term outlook to drift down and join the Blazers in Tier 6, but Will Hardy is too good of a coach to let that happen.

San Antonio makes an 11-win jump, but lands firmly outside of the postseason picture. Come on, Pop. Play Chris Paul 35 minutes a night, and let him feed Victor Wembanyama and pick up another assist title.

It’s only right.

Houston desperately needs to package three of four of its rotation guys for an established star. There are far too many mouths to feed at the moment, which is undoubtedly going to mess with the chemistry. You can’t have seven talented kids looking to land a massive second contract, and expect all of them to be selfless.

Tier 4: Shouldn’t We Be Better?

11. Los Angeles Clippers (38-44)

10. Golden State (41-41)

9. Sacramento (42-40)

8. New Orleans (43-39)

Both the Clippers and Warriors are led by an aging star duo, but I trust Golden State’s supporting cast much more. LA finds out that you can’t replace Paul George with Derrick Jones Jr., and dives into the lottery.

Sacramento is a quintessential play-in squad. I commend the front office for making an offseason splash, but DeMar DeRozan’s fit isn’t seamless. He’ll always get his 20-5-4, but I can see the Kings struggling early as they try to incorporate him into this unique offense. Meanwhile, this is the fifth straight campaign where New Orleans does not have a rim protector; there’s no chance that Yves Missi is ready to start. I’ve been a Dejounte Murray stan since his Rainier Beach days, but he won’t fix that glaring hole at the five.

Tier 3: We Should Definitely Be Better

7. Phoenix (44-38)

6. Minnesota (47-35)

It was kind of jarring to see Bradley Beal waltz onto a podcast and talk about how good the Suns would’ve been had he stayed healthy last year. It appears he doesn’t understand. Missing time is what he does. This is Beal over the past five seasons.

• 2019-20: Played 57 of 72 games

• 2020-21: Played 60 of 72 games

• 2021-22: Played 40 of 82 games

• 2022-23: Played 50 of 82 games

• 2023-24: Played 53 of 82 games

I hope he’s in the lineup every night, but I’m certainly not counting on it. I thought Phoenix’s obvious problem heading into the summer was the lack of a vocal leader, and absolutely nothing was done to address it. This team is getting bounced in Round 1 again.

The Timberwolves would be several spots higher had I written this nine days ago. They lost the Karl-Anthony Towns trade, plain and simple.

Julius Randle and Rudy Gobert playing next to each other in crunch time? Minnesota fans will be melting down on Reddit by mid-November.

Tier 2: Puncher’s Chance

5. Memphis (49-33)

4. Los Angeles Lakers (50-32)

3. Dallas (51-31)

It’s Year 6 for Ja Morant, and he’s never appeared in 68 games in a campaign. Contending windows don’t last forever; the dude has to stay on the court. Zach Edey is a dream fit on this roster. He’ll be posting nightly double-doubles by the All-Star break, and I think he also raises some eyebrows with how he fares defending Nikola Jokic.

My belief in the Lakers is well-documented. They won 47 games with a clueless coach last year, and I have them rising to host a first-round series. LA slots in just behind the Mavs, who tossed out some of their fluky rotation guys and brought in one of the five greatest three-point shooters ever.

Tier 1: The Targets

2. Denver (53-29)

1. Oklahoma City (56-26)

Denver is Denver. As long as Jokic is healthy, things are fine. The loss of Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is being a little bit overblown. It just means more minutes for Christian Braun and Peyton Watson, and I believe in both. The Nuggets better hope that Jamal Murray’s performance in the Olympics was an aberration if they want to return to the Finals, though.

That was rather alarming to watch. I’ve seen Jamal play a lot of basketball, and he’s never, ever looked that lost.

I don’t need to say a whole lot about the Thunder. They entered the offseason hunting an upgrade from Josh Giddey, and a big who could bump Chet Holmgren down to power forward. Sam Presti took care of business, and brought back Alex Caruso and Isaiah Hartenstein. The roster is stocked with incredibly gifted kids that are still improving, and the offseason additions slot in perfectly both on and off the court.

The West is too loaded for any squad to post some wild win total. But Oklahoma City grabs the top seed in the conference for the second consecutive season.

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