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Eastern Conference Finals: No. 3 seed New York Knicks vs. No. 4 seed Indiana Pacers

The pick: Knicks in 7.

It had been quite some time since an NBA injury really shook me up. But seeing Jayson Tatum pound his head on the Madison Square Garden hardwood in anguish was absolutely gut-wrenching; even if the rest of us were holding out hope for positive news that evening, you could tell that he knew the severity immediately. When the poor guy had his face buried in the hands while sitting in that wheelchair, the thoughts of a grueling recovery process were clearly starting to set in. He’s on a $314 million deal, yet the whole thing was truly heartbreaking to watch.

My first thought that didn’t have to do with Tatum’s physical and emotional well-being was about how weird this upcoming series would feel. Either Jalen Brunson or Tyrese Haliburton is going to take an organization to the Finals as an undisputed No. 1 option, before making a single first-team All-NBA. That hasn’t happened since Dwyane Wade in 2006.

The Pacers are the better squad, quite frankly. These guys are 48-19 since that ugly start to the year, where their aforementioned franchise face looked like he was still on a boat in Paris. No crew in the league plays a prettier brand of basketball, and the connectivity is peaking at the perfect time. A collective assist-to-turnover ratio of 2.5 in the playoffs is incredibly impressive.

I just can’t get last season out of my head, though. New York - which was severely short-handed, running on fumes, and far less talented than it is now - pushed this exact same Indiana roster to the brink in Round 2. Mikal Bridges has arrived to keep those crafty guards out of the paint. Karl-Anthony Towns won’t shoot 16% from distance like he did against Boston; I could also see his careening expeditions to the rim creating some foul trouble for Myles Turner, and exposing the Pacers’ lack of depth at the five.

I have too much respect for Rick Carlisle to predict a short series, but I like the Knicks here. They’ll finish it off in front of a deafening crowd in the Big Apple, and win the East for the first time since the turn of the century.

Western Conference Finals: No. 1 seed Oklahoma City Thunder vs. No. 6 seed Minnesota Timberwolves

The pick: Thunder in 6.

We’ve reached a critical point in the career of Anthony Edwards. Eliminate a fully-healthy, 68-win Oklahoma City team at 23 years old, and you’ve earned admission to a new realm. Like, top-three on the planet kind of conversations.

The Wolves have not played an above-average opposing center since the infamous double-overtime instant classic in Denver. That was 50 days ago. Are they ready to deal with a pair of the most active, intelligent bigs in the conference for two weeks? What about the Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assignment? Does Anthony Edwards take the challenge? Could Jaylen Clark suddenly rejoin the rotation? I’m fascinated to watch the chess match unfold.

It was kind of alarming to see a dysfunctional, thin, banged-up No. 4 seed give the Thunder serious issues. Shai is partly to blame for drifting off in some important spots. Nikola Jokic’s sheer brilliance had a lot to do with it, as well. But the primary reason why the series turned into a slugfest was Jalen Williams. That man vanished in four of the seven contests, and seemed legitimately afraid to be out there at times. I’ll cautiously trust that his solid performance on Sunday is a sign that he’s finally woken up.

It was not a fluke that OKC clinched the top spot in the vaunted West with 13 games to spare. Even if some of the late-game execution stuff remains a bit shaky, this is a historically-dominant group. The baby Thunder blast their way onto the sport’s biggest stage, and inch closer to a long-awaited title.

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