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No. 1 seed Cleveland Cavaliers vs. No. 8 seed Miami Heat

The pick: Cavaliers in 5.

I think the chances of Cleveland going up 2-0 in this series are around 90%. Maybe higher. The fan base is absolutely rabid right now, and for good reason; Moses Malone was still in the NBA when the Cavs last earned a top-three seed in the East without LeBron.

Hey, Miami people. Push this to six, and I’ll never make fun of Heat Culture again. Best of luck.

No. 2 seed Boston Celtics vs. No. 7 seed Orlando Magic

The pick: Celtics in 4.

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope led Orlando with 113 threes this season. Boston has six(!!) players who made more. Let’s not even discuss this thing any further. Jamahl Mosley might as well book a flight to Cancun that departs right after Game 4.

No. 3 seed New York Knicks vs. No. 6 seed Detroit Pistons

The pick: Knicks in 5.

It’s kind of alarming to hear New York folks talk about their own team. I miss Randle. I miss Hartenstein. I miss DiVincenzo. We were so much tougher in 2024. This squad is softer than tissue paper. I didn’t know how good we had it.

Look, 0-10 against the league’s three elite squads is undeniably concerning. But can we perk up a little bit, guys? You were below 51 wins in 26 of the previous 27 years, yet reached that benchmark this season in spite of a month-long injury to the face of the franchise. Things could be far worse.

Detroit’s lack of a secondary ball handler and playmaker is about to end its fun campaign. OG Anunoby corrals Cade Cunningham, and the Knicks cruise.

No. 4 seed Indiana Pacers vs. No. 5 seed Milwaukee Bucks

The pick: Bucks in 7.

Jawing, shoving matches, double techs. I want it all. If these groups truly detest each other, we’re in for a Medieval Times duel.

Indiana is an objectively better basketball team, and Tyrese Haliburton has repeatedly smashed eggs on my face after I clowned him for those brutal first 15 contests. Still - assuming Damian Lillard is back within the next week or so - Milwaukee has the two players in the series that I trust most to show up in a big spot. Vegas likes the Pacers, and I disagree.

No. 1 seed Oklahoma City Thunder vs. No. 8 seed Memphis Grizzlies

The pick: Thunder in 5.

I have a simple, straightforward question for anyone who thinks Memphis can make it interesting. Who’s guarding Shai? Like, you actually need to give me a name before the rest of us start giggling. Ja Morant, who only bothers competing on that end when he feels like it? Desmond Bane and his negative wingspan? Oh, it’s 6-foot-1 Scotty Pippen Jr.? Let’s stop with the jokes, buddy.

I can see OKC’s MVP candidate dropping 40 multiple times. The Thunder will be well-rested for a war in Round 2.

No. 2 seed Houston Rockets vs. No. 7 seed Golden State Warriors

The pick: Rockets in 7.

Well, we’ve reached the best of the eight battles. Even non-basketball fans should be dialed in; Dillon Brooks and Draymond might just launch into the Oklahoma drill at the center circle without warning.

If I could select one human being on Earth to guard Steph Curry, it’s Amen Thompson. His athleticism legitimately looks fake at times, and we already know he’s prepared for the challenge.

To me, this pick is ultimately dependent on how much you believe in Ime Udoka. Six of Houston’s top eight minute-getters are making their playoff debut, while Golden State’s Big Three owns a combined 14 Finals appearances. Will he have the kids ready to fight?

I think we’re headed for a Game 7, and I’ll trust the Rockets’ toughness and heart to finish the deal. The post-Harden contention window has opened in Houston.

No. 3 seed Los Angeles Lakers vs. No. 6 seed Minnesota Timberwolves

The pick: Lakers in 6.

Look, it can be pretty tempting to side with Anthony Edwards’ competitiveness in a setting like this. But Luka Doncic beat Minnesota last year; he now has a better roster, a better coach, and the Wolves are worse. What am I supposed to do with that?

Jaden McDaniels will undoubtedly get the Luka assignment, which leaves LeBron with favorable matchups. Even though the Lakers have some questions to answer defensively, I’m fairly confident that they’ll advance.

No. 4 seed Denver Nuggets vs. No. 5 seed Los Angeles Clippers

The pick: Nuggets in 7.

Believe it or not, the Summer Olympics have happened twice since Kawhi Leonard last finished a postseason series healthy. Let’s all hope the poor guy gets through this one intact.

The Clippers are smoking hot. They’ve won 18 of their last 21, and feel like a legitimate title threat. James Harden continues to make me look stupid, Leonard is starting to inch towards his 2019 Raptors form, and Ivica Zubac has blossomed into a real star. The Nuggets just punted their coach and GM out the door, and have the worst bench in the NBA. I don’t blame anyone for taking LA to roll.

Denver employs Nikola Jokic, though. I can’t bring myself to pick against the man who put together arguably the greatest offensive campaign ever. All conventional wisdom points to the Clippers, and it doesn’t matter. Give me the best player on the planet.

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“Haven’t Met You Yet” by Michael Buble. It’s somehow become underrated.