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My College Football Playoff Round 1 predictions.
Welcome to Glass Slipper! I’m convinced that every football broadcaster is contractually obligated to tell us about Baker Mayfield’s tenure with the Rams; please enjoy the show.
- Jacob Rhee
I was only planning to make predictions for the college football regular season, but I feel like giving out more rewards. Same rules apply; every time I pick a winner incorrectly, it costs me $15 in rewards. I will be predicting the outcomes of the Power Four conference championship games, as well as all 11 playoff contests. That’s 15 extra chances to inflate the Prize Pot. Let’s go.
Game 1: No. 9 seed Alabama vs. No. 8 seed Oklahoma
The pick: Alabama wins, 21-16.
I’ve changed my mind about this matchup upwards of 15 times. The Sooners submitted a B+ performance in the first meeting, and still emerged victorious in Tuscaloosa. Now Norman is the setting; R Mason Thomas will play, and LT Overton is inactive. Meanwhile, John Mateer has had almost three full weeks to rest his ailing thumb. On paper, this is Oklahoma’s game. No excuses for Brent Venables.
We’ve seen what Alabama looks like when it’s all clicking, however. I can count on one hand the number of squads that possess the requisite juice to go on the road and build a double-digit advantage against Georgia. The Tide have week-to-week consistency issues, but they can tussle with anyone on a given night.
You guys know by now. When a true toss-up arises, I normally side with the group that’s better in the trenches. Believe it or not, I’m going to temporarily discard my philosophy. Deontae Lawson forces a turnover late, and Bama prevails after 210 minutes of pure stress.
Game 2: No. 10 seed Miami (FL) vs. No. 7 seed Texas A&M
The pick: Texas A&M wins, 34-24.
If I could custom-build a college football roster to take down the Aggies, it would look fairly similar to Miami. A superstar tackle, to deal with Cashius Howell. Two all-conference corners, to try and contain Mario Craver and KC Concepcion. An electric pass-catcher, who could silence that deafening College Station crowd in an instant. In many ways, the ‘Canes got gifted an ideal opponent.
Unfortunately for Miami, quarterbacks are important in this sport. You may have heard. The one that will be dressed in maroon tomorrow afternoon is right behind Fernando Mendoza, as the dudes that I trust the most on a big stage. Expand those rankings to include every FBS starter, and Carson Beck likely lands in the bottom half. His track record is wobbly at best.
I’ve quietly waited all season for Corey Hetherman’s unit to unravel. It’s about to finally happen. The Aggies advance to the quarterfinals, behind a brilliant showing from their star-studded offense.
Game 3: No. 11 seed Tulane vs. No. 6 seed Ole Miss
The pick: Ole Miss wins, 27-17.
Yes, the Rebels beat this crew by 35 in September. Don’t allow that result to cloud your view of the rematch too much. I truly think the Green Wave are going to linger; that 17.5-point line feels awfully aggressive.
Surely, Jon Sumrall understands that engaging in a shootout is not prudent. He needs to turn to the classic they’re-more-talented-than-us gameplan. Milk clock, protect the ball, and capitalize in the red zone. Given that Ole Miss has consistently struggled to contain the run, Tulane can absolutely execute the blueprint effectively.
Though I’ll ultimately stick with the Rebels, don’t act surprised when Ole Miss fans are squirming at the start of the fourth. This will not be the snooze-fest that many are anticipating.
Game 4: No. 12 seed James Madison vs. No. 5 seed Oregon
The pick: Oregon wins, 41-13.
I don’t see a competitive game here at all. Sorry. Bob Chesney has my full respect, and I think he’s going to do a fantastic job in Westwood. His guys aren’t ready for a stage like this, though.
For whatever reason, we collectively stopped talking about the Ducks. In hindsight, it’s a bit difficult to understand why. Their loss came against the nation’s only undefeated team, and that thing was tied at 20 with seven minutes to play. More ranked wins than Ole Miss, more double-digit victories than Georgia. That awesome wide receiver room was decimated by injuries, but is getting healthy at the perfect time. These dudes can absolutely hang a banner.
Dan Lanning is 25-2 at Autzen Stadium. The dominance continues in 24 hours. Oregon brings a big lead into the break, and puts JMU away shortly after.
Conference Championship Weekend Results: 2-2
Overall Season Picks Record: 56-32
Current CFB Prize Pot: $480
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I think we need to give him a lot of grace.
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