Welcome to Glass Slipper! There’s a college football game on at noon. Hustle over to the TV as soon as you’re done reading this newsletter; please enjoy the show.

- Jacob Rhee

I thought about waiting until next week to release my full playoff predictions. But did you not hear? College football - even if it’s just a few games - begins today. Why should I be allowed to make my picks after the start of the season? Suppose Georgia Tech goes out and beats Florida State this afternoon. I shouldn’t have a chance to alter my choices.

So, enough talk. Here are the 12 teams I have making the CFP this year.

The First-Round Byes

1. Ohio State (Big Ten champion) (12-1)

2. Utah (Big 12 champion) (12-1)

3. Georgia (SEC champion) (12-1)

4. Florida State (ACC champion) (11-2)

No Power Five team will make it to Selection Sunday perfect, a direct byproduct of conference realignment. Ohio State grabs the top spot after avenging its road loss to Oregon by defeating the Ducks in the Big Ten Championship Game. My beloved Utes lock up the Big 12 with a win over Arizona. As you may remember, I have Georgia getting stunned by Kentucky early. But I think the Dawgs run the table from there, and take the SEC. Florida State looks beatable all year, but edges out Clemson in a win-or-go-home ACC title game.

The Hosts

5. Oregon (12-1)

6. Notre Dame (11-1)

7. Penn State (11-1)

8. Alabama (11-2)

I promise that I didn’t just slot these programs in the 5-8 range because each one has an absolutely ridiculous home environment. That would be unprofessional, and rather disingenuous. But this is a pretty incredible hypothetical to even think about. One-loss non-champs Oregon and Notre Dame ease into the first two host positions; Penn State and Alabama suffer two defeats apiece, but nab home-field advantage anyway. Playoff games in Eugene, South Bend, Happy Valley, and Tuscaloosa? What a way to kick off the 12-team era.

The Road Warriors

9. Tennessee (10-2)

10. Texas (10-2)

11. Iowa (11-1)

12. Ole Miss (10-2)

Even after losing plenty of talent to the NFL and relocating to a brutal SEC, the Longhorns will probably be a touch disappointed by a No. 10 seed after the run they had last season. The other three squads? Oh, their fans will be executing jumping group hugs in the living room when the logos are revealed. Most of you probably did a double take when you saw Iowa included in this group. It’s easy to forget that the Hawkeyes have actually been closer to making the CFP than Tennessee or Ole Miss ever has. Kirk Ferentz’s team faces an ultra-friendly schedule and possesses a dominant defense; I think Iowa tiptoes into the bracket when other programs fall during conference championship weekend.

First Four Out

13. Clemson (10-3)

14. Miami (10-2)

15. Arizona (10-3)

16. Michigan (9-3)

The committee has certainly done strange things in the past, so all of these squads will be tuned in on Selection Sunday just in case. But I actually don’t think the decision ends up being too tough this year. There will be a clear gap between No. 12 Ole Miss and No. 13 Clemson, with the Rebels having fewer losses in a tougher conference. Miami takes a leap but comes up just short, and Arizona misses its chance to secure a bid in the Big 12 Championship Game. The Michigan fans that have been brave enough to subscribe to a newsletter run by an Ohio State fan are going to be especially irritated today. The Wolverines have had three seasons of fun, and the time has come for a bit of a rebuilding year in Ann Arbor.

Round 1

#5 Oregon OVER #12 Ole Miss

#6 Notre Dame OVER #11 Iowa

#10 Texas OVER #7 Penn State

#8 Alabama OVER #9 Tennessee

Quarterfinals

#1 Ohio State OVER #8 Alabama

#2 Utah OVER #10 Texas

#3 Georgia OVER #6 Notre Dame

#5 Oregon OVER #4 Florida State

Semifinals

#1 Ohio State OVER #5 Oregon

#3 Georgia OVER #2 Utah

National Championship Game

#1 Ohio State OVER #3 Georgia

Yeah. Those Michigan supporters I mentioned earlier? They’re fuming now. It’s okay, guys. Just sit back, watch the Buckeyes hoist the trophy, and hope your punishments for the cheating aren’t too harsh.

The college football season is finally here. Let’s have some fun.

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